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  • NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities

  • In this section
    • In this section
      2018 NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities
      2017 NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities
      2016 NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities
      2015 NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities
      2014 NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities
  • The Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) provides technical and market data that informs the decision-making processes of market participants, new investors, and jurisdictional bodies as they assess opportunities in the National Electricity Market (NEM) over a 10-year outlook period.

    The NEM ESOO incorporates a reliability assessment against the reliability standard defined in the National Electricity Rules (NER) clause 3.9.3C and AEMO’s Reliability Forecast under the Retailer Reliability Obligations (RRO).

    • The Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (559 KB, pdf) describes how AEMO implements the reliability standard across its reliability processes, including the approach and assumptions in relation to the ESOO.
    • AEMO’s 2019 Reliability Forecasting Methodology Paper (509 KB, pdf) presents the methodology used in developing the Reliability Forecast in the ESOO specifically.

    2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities

    The 2019 ESOO presents AEMO’s outlook of supply adequacy to 2028–29 under a number of scenarios and sensitivities.

    The 2019 ESOO was prepared by AEMO using information available at 8 August 2019. Information made available after this date may have been included in this publication where practical.

    • 2019 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (3.8 MB, pdf)

    2019 NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities – results

    To view reliability outcomes by region, see:

    • 2019 ESOO Results – NSW  (47 KB, xls)
    • 2019 ESOO Results – QLD  (46 KB, xls)
    • 2019 ESOO Results – SA   (48 KB, xls)
    • 2019 ESOO Results – TAS (46 KB, xls)
    • 2019 ESOO Results – VIC (47 KB, xls)

    To view demand forecasts by region, see:

    • AEMO's forecasting data portal
      • Guide to using the AEMO Forecasting data portal (910 KB, pdf)
      • AEMO's Forecasting demand definitions (167 KB, pdf)

    2019 NEM ESOO Supporting Material

    For the purpose of the National Electricity Rules Clause 3.13.3A(a), in addition to the ESOO and accompanying documents published on this page, the following information should be considered part of the 2019 ESOO:

    • AEMO’s Generation Information Page – 8 August 2019 update (direct download 813 KB, xls).
    • The 2019 Inputs and Assumptions workbook (24.7 MB, xls). Note that the 2019 Inputs and Assumptions Workbook contains data not applied to the ESOO, incorporating future potential developments appropriate to the Integrated System Plan or other Forecasting and Planning analyses.
    • A memo – Generator Outage Analysis for 2019 ESOO v2 (200 KB, pdf) explaining the reasoning behind the probabilities of delayed return to service of the current long term outages that were used in the 2019 NEM ESOO.

    In addition, the following reports describe key inputs into the demand forecasting process.

    Report:

    Link:

    Deloitte Access Economics, 2019 AEMO Long term economic scenario forecasts

    Deloitte Access Economics, 2019 AEMO Long term economic scenario forecasts (5.83 MB, pdf)

    CSIRO, 2019 Projections for Small Scale Embedded Technologies Report

    2019 Projections for Small Scale Embedded Technologies Report by CSIRO (1.9 MB, pdf)

    Energeia, Distributed Energy Resources and Electric Vehicle Forecasts Report

    Distributed Energy Resources and Electric Vehicle Forecasts - Report by Energeia (2.33 MB, pdf)

    Strategy Policy Research, 2019 Energy Efficiency Forecasts

    Strategy Policy Research, 2019 Energy Efficiency Forecasts (5.2 MB, pdf)

    Additional inputs, assumptions and methodologies across AEMO’s Planning and Forecasting functions are available at:

    • Scenarios, inputs, assumptions and methodologies for Planning and Forecasting

    2019 NEM ESOO Methodology

    • Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology Information Paper (2.1 MB, pdf)
    • ESOO Methodology document  (443 KB, pdf)
    • Demand Side Participation forecast and methodology  (443 KB, pdf)
    2019 NEM ESOO Model
    • 2019 NEM ESOO Model and Data Set Instructions (652 KB, pdf)
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        • 2019 Constraint Ratings

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        • ZIP 406.95MB
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        • ZIP 405.02MB
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        • ZIP 225.66MB
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        • ZIP 148.75MB
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        • ZIP 356.41MB
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