Reliability Forecasting Methodology Issues Paper
In this section
In this section
- Market Suspension Compensation Methodology consultation
- Metering Exemption Guideline
- Dispatch – Pricing and miscellaneous procedures (non-rules consultation)
- Five Minute Settlement – NEM Transmission Network Service Provider Negative Settlements Residue Procedure
- Spot Market Operations Timetable
- Carbon Dioxide Equivalent Intensity Index Procedure
- NEM Distributed Energy Resources (DER) Register Information Guidelines Consultation
- Reliability Forecasting Methodology Issues Paper
- Five-Minute Settlement – Metering Procedure Changes (Package 2)
- Metering ICF Package Consultation
- 2019 Planning and Forecasting Consultation
- Five Minute Settlement – NEM Settlement Revisions Policy
- MSATS Standing Data Consultation
- Procedures For Directions And Instructions Consultation
- SRA Secondary Trading Implementation Consultation
- Five Minute Settlement - Credit Limit Procedures
- Virtual Power Plant (VPP) Demonstrations Discussion Paper
- National Electricity Market Demand Forecasting Methodology Issues Paper Consultation
- Five Minute Settlement – NEM Settlement Estimates Policy
- Five Minute Settlement - Auction Participation Agreement
A key component of the RRO is the calculation of a five-year reliability forecast for each National Electricity Market (NEM) region, to be published in AEMO’s Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO). This may trigger AEMO to submit a reliability instrument request to the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) should the reliability forecast identify a material reliability gap.
To provide confidence in the quality and transparency of the forecasts, AEMO will be required to produce reliability forecasts in accordance with Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines to be developed by the AER, and Reliability Forecast Guidelines to be established subsequently by AEMO. However, the first reliability instrument could be triggered from the 2019 ESOO, before these Guidelines are in place.
This Issues Paper is therefore intended to provide transparency around AEMO’s approach to preparing the reliability forecasts in advance of formal Guidelines being developed.
- Issues paper (811 KB, pdf)
Stakeholders are invited to submit written responses to the questions outlined in this Issues Paper, and on other issues related to forecasting a reliability gap, by 5.00 pm (Australian Eastern Standard Time) on Wednesday 22 May 2019.
Submissions should be sent by email to email@example.com.
AEMO held a stakeholder workshop 9 May to allow stakeholders to seek additional clarity around the points raised in the issues paper before making their submissions. The slidepack from the workshop is available here:
- RRO Workshop - combined slide pack (1.6 MB, pdf)
In addition to the issues paper, AEMO has prepared:
- A minor update to the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines, improving consistency of wording, updating terminology and broken links (this has been change-marked to show where it differs from the current version).
- A draft update to the ESOO Methodology document.
- A draft version of the Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology Information Paper, which through change-marks shows where the demand forecasting methodology is proposed to change for the 2019 demand forecasts underpinning the 2019 ESOO and associated reliability forecast.
- An addendum to the issues paper explaining the reasoning behind the proposed approach for calculating the reliability gap period and likely trading intervals.
These documents are presented as drafts here, and will, subject to any feedback from stakeholders, be made final following the closure of the consultation:
- Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines – Draft 2019 update (516 KB, pdf)
- ESOO Methodology Document – Draft 2019 Update (325 KB, pdf)
- Electricity Demand Forecasting Methodology Information Paper – Draft 2019 update (1.9 MB, pdf)
- Reliability Forecasting Metholodology Issues Paper addendum (350 KB, pdf)
Issues Paper Submissions
- AEC submission (178 KB, pdf)
- AGL submission (83 KB, pdf)
- Energy Queensland submission (253 KB, pdf)
- EnergyAustralia submission (130 KB, pdf)
- ERM Power submission (205 KB, pdf)
- EUAA submission (178 KB, pdf)
- Flow Power submission (208 KB, pdf)
- MEA and Powershop submission (137 KB, pdf)
- MEU submission (42 KB, pdf)
- PIAC submission (264 KB, pdf)
- QUEN submission (88 KB, pdf)
- Sligar and Associates submission (46 KB, pdf)
- Snowy Hydro submission (350 KB, pdf)